#136 - Too Early To Tell

Complicated, different realities, and maybe not

Hector Hughes

Nov 10, 2024

Some call it the end of the World.

Others prophesies a glorious new age.

Trump is back.

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Complicated

It’s fascinating how brilliant people can be so opposed on an issue.

Every issue in fact. Take any hotly debated issue on the planet and you’ll find wise, intelligent people on each side.

Nothing is more hotly debated, this week, than the US election.

Within 30 mins, on Wednesday, I had someone tell me this is the dawn of the next, great, American age. And someone else tell me the whole world is fucked.

Both smart people and utterly convinced of their forecasts.

So who’s right?

Well, it’s complicated.

Different Realities

Firstly there’s a question of how we measure.

Best to you may look very different to best to me.

We have this idea that our reality is everyone’s; how we see the world is how everyone else does.

That’s not so.

Take what makes a good President?

We’ll all have different opinions around what matters; based around our values, upbringing, and current predicament. On our widely different realities.

And then there’s the individuals involved. Trump, like anyone, is complicated; despite our desire to boil him down to a caricature.

To some he’s nothing but a narcissist, devoid of empathy. And to others he’s the bold hero America needs. One can easily find “evidence” to justify either belief.

So you and I will likely be judging a very different perception of a person with a very different perception of a role. No wonder it’s a minefield.

The issue is we don’t realise what’s happening.

We judge the other side’s beliefs against our values and situation. Through that lens they’re clearly villains.

Or perhaps they’re just different humans with a different view of the world?

Maybe Not

And then there’s the challenges of forecasting.

Even if we all agreed marvellously on the goal- be it economic growth, or any quantifiable metric. There too we’re on treacherous ground.

It’s a complex system.

And yet we try to boil it down to one or two pithy points: “Trump’s the answer as he’ll shut down global conflict” or “boost American business” therefore he’s clearly best for economics growth.

There’s a great parable on this:

A farmer and his son had a beloved horse who helped the family earn a living. One day, the horse ran away and their neighbours exclaimed, “Your horse ran away, what terrible luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not.”
A few days later, the horse returned home, leading a few wild horses back to the farm as well. The neighbours shouted out, “Your horse has returned, and brought several horses home with him. What great luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not.”
Later that week, the farmer’s son was trying to break one of the horses and she threw him to the ground, breaking his leg. The neighbours cried, “Your son broke his leg, what terrible luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not.”
A few weeks later, soldiers from the national army marched through town, recruiting all boys for the army. They did not take the farmer’s son, because he had a broken leg. The neighbours shouted, “Your boy is spared, what tremendous luck!” To which the farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not. We’ll see.”

Perhaps you can see where I’m going with this.

Like it or not Trump is in.

Will he do a good job?

As the Chinese Premier once said, when asked if the French Revolution had been a success, 200 years after the fact:

It’s too early to tell.

What I’ve Been Reading 📚

The Brain That Changes Itself by Norman Doidge

On neuroplasticity. It’s really remarkable how the brain can adapt. Our brains are changing all the time. This is full of crazy examples including a women born with half a brain who now lives a normal life. Much more is possible than we think.

The Fund by Rob Copland

A takedown of Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater, the biggest hedgefund in the world. Very entertaining and quite the story. Copland paints an Orwellian dystopia inside the firm.